Экспертная оценка устойчивости атмосферных процессов для долгосрочного метеорологического прогноза

Abstract

In this paper we consider the long-range hydrodynamical-statistical weather forecast scheme, based on the general circulation model of T41 spectral resolution. As compared to prier attempts the scheme includes new blocks for persuing the fol lowing objectives: the apriori forecast quality assessments; filtering daily data to reconstruct the decade and monthly meteorological fields; interpretation of the atmospheric circulation field for reconstruction and forecasting the surface air temperature and precipitation.